赵海波, 李佳琦, 王梓琦, 等, 2024. CMIP6模式对北极海冰的模拟及夏季无冰时间集合预估[J]. 海洋科学进展, 42(2): 238-253. doi: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20230109001.
引用本文: 赵海波, 李佳琦, 王梓琦, 等, 2024. CMIP6模式对北极海冰的模拟及夏季无冰时间集合预估[J]. 海洋科学进展, 42(2): 238-253. doi: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20230109001.
ZHAO H B, LI J Q, WANG Z Q, et al, 2024. CMIP6 simulations of the Arctic sea ice and their ensemble projection of ice free time in boreal summer[J]. Advances in Marine Science, 42(2): 238-253. DOI: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20230109001
Citation: ZHAO H B, LI J Q, WANG Z Q, et al, 2024. CMIP6 simulations of the Arctic sea ice and their ensemble projection of ice free time in boreal summer[J]. Advances in Marine Science, 42(2): 238-253. DOI: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20230109001

CMIP6模式对北极海冰的模拟及夏季无冰时间集合预估

CMIP6 Simulations of the Arctic Sea Ice and Their Ensemble Projection of Ice Free Time in Boreal Summer

  • 摘要: CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)共有52个模式提供了历史试验海冰密集度和海冰厚度的模拟数据,其中有35个模式提供了中等排放情景(SSP245)和高排放情景(SSP585)下未来海冰的模拟数据。本文从历史试验中3月、9月以及海冰年内变化模拟的角度综合评估了52个模式,并依据评估结果及1982-2012年预估试验的结果选择了部分模式使用相关约束法及多模式集合平均法预估了北极出现夏季无冰的时间。筛选出排名前19的模式用于预估未来海冰范围。在中等排放情景(SSP245)下,相关约束法预估在2065年北极将会首次出现夏季无冰的情况,而多模式集合平均法预估夏季无冰的情况将于2064年出现,两者预估的时间仅相差1年。在高排放情景(SSP585)下,相关约束法预估在2051年北极将会首次出现夏季无冰的情况,而多模式集合平均法预估夏季无冰的情况将于2050年以后出现,两者预估的时间也仅相差1年。2种方法在使用同样的模式组合时预估的结果相差不大。与其他研究类似,2种情景下的预估仍然存在很大的不确定性。

     

    Abstract: There are 52 models providing simulations of historical sea ice concentration and thickness in the CMIP6, and 35 of them provide future sea ice simulations under moderate forcing scenario (SSP245) and high forcing scenario (SSP585). In this paper, the 52 models are comprehensively evaluated on the simulation of sea ice in March, September and seasonal variation. The 35 models were further used to conduct sea ice extent projection tests from 1982 to 2012, and the top 19 models were selected to predict the future Arctic summer sea ice free time when sea ice extent is less than one million square kilometers. Under the moderate forcing scenario (SSP245), the result from the ensemble regression method indicates that the Arctic will be ice free in summer for the first time in 2065 with sea ice extent less than one million square kilometers, while the result from the multi-model ensemble mean method shows that the ice free in summer will occur in 2064. The time difference between the two projections is only one year. Under the high forcing scenario (SSP585), the ensemble regression method indicates that Arctic will be ice free in summer for the first time in 2051, while the multi-model ensemble mean method shows that the ice free in summer will occur in 2050. The time difference is also only one year. When using the same model simulations, the projections of the two methods have little difference. The uncertainty of the above projections still exists as in pervious studies.

     

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