基于南海水下滑翔机观测的业务预报系统温盐分析数据评估

Evaluation of Analysis Data of Operational Oceanography Forecasting System Using Profiles From Underwater Glider in the South China Sea

  • 摘要: 利用2019年7月12日至9月20日“海翼”号水下滑翔机在南海北部的温盐观测数据,对3个海洋业务预报系统(法国Mercator Océan International的PSY4、美国HYCOM Consortium的GOFS3.1和中国国家海洋环境预报中心的CGOFS)的温盐分析数据进行了质量评估。结果表明,3个业务预报系统对温度和盐度都有较好的刻画能力。其中,PSY4系统的温度、盐度在所有评估点处的总体均方根误差分别为0.45 ℃、0.056,小于另外2个系统,是3个系统中最优的。从总体偏差来看,PSY4与CGOFS温度呈现暖偏差,而GOFS3.1温度呈现冷偏差;3个系统的盐度都呈现负偏差。均方根误差的垂向结构显示,温度均方根误差与偏差最大值出现在水深100 m附近,盐度最大值在水深50 m附近。以上结论为南海北部海域使用分析数据提供参考。此外,大气强迫场的降水量偏多可能导致了CGOFS系统8月的盐度值出现较大的均方根误差和较明显的负偏差,因此在数值预报时需更多地关注强迫场的选取。

     

    Abstract: The temperature and salinity analysis from three operational forecasting systems (PSY4 of Mercator Océan International of France, GOFS3.1 of HYCOM Consortium of the United States, and CGOFS of the National Center for Marine Environmental Forecast of China) were evaluated with the observation data by "Haiyi" underwater glider in the northern South China Sea from July 12, 2019 to September 20, 2019. In general, the three forecasting systems can well reproduce the distribution and variability of temperature and salinity. The RMSE of temperature and salinity of PSY4 system are 0.45 ℃ and 0.056, respectively, which are smaller than those of the other two forecasting systems. Evaluation also shows that the temperature produced by the PSY4 and CGOFS forecasting systems presents warm bias, while that by the GOFS3.1 presents cold biases, and the salinity of all the three systems exhibits negative biases. In addition, the salinity in August 2019 produced by the CGOFS shows a large RMSE and significant cold deviation, which might be due to the large precipitation in its atmospheric forcing field.

     

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