BP和 RBF神经网络应用于海表温盐短期预测效果对比
Comparison of Short-Term Prediction Effects of the Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Based on BP and RBF Neural Network
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摘要: 为了对海表温度(SeaSurfaceTemperature,SST)和海表盐度(SeaSurfaceSalinity,SSS)数据进行精确的短期预报,基于多站位海洋观测浮标获取的海表温度和海表盐度数据,利用反向传播(BackPropagation,BP)和径向基函数(RadialBasisFunction,RBF)两种神经网络方法开展了短期预测。首先,在预测时长固定为5d的情况下,对比不同训练时长的预测结果的均方误差(MeanSquaredError,MSE),进而确定以20d的观测数据作为训练集的预测结果均方误差最小。然后,以 PAPA 站观测浮标获取的2009年1月、4月、7月和10月各月的前20d温盐数据作为训练集,分别训练BP和 RBF神经网络,将训练好的2种神经网络模型应用于各月第21至25日的温盐数据预测。结果表明:BP和 RBF神经网络均能有效预测海表温盐数据的季节性变化,但 RBF神经网络对不同预测时间的整体预测效果优于 BP神经网络。多站点数据的预测实验进一步验证了 RBF神经网络模型具有较强适用性和更高的准确性。RBF神经网络模型可以作为海表温盐数据短期预报的有力工具。Abstract: In order to make an accurate short-term prediction of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) data, the short-term prediction results of Back Propagation (BP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network methods are compared and analyzed by using the SST and SSS data obtained by multi-station marine observation buoys. Firstly, when the prediction days are fixed to 5 days, the Mean Squared Errors (MSE) of the prediction results of different training days are compared, and then determine that the MSE with 20 days of observation data as the training set is the smallest. Then, taking the SST and SSS data of the first 20 days in January,April, July and October 2009 obtained by the observation buoy of PAPA station as the training set, BP and RBF neural networks are trained respectively. Thereafter, the trained two neural network models are applied to the prediction of SST and SSS data from the 21st to 25th days of each month. The results show that both BP and RBF neural network can effectively predict the seasonal changes of SST and SSS data. But the comparative experiments of different prediction days show that the overall prediction effect of RBF neural network is better than BP neural network. Finally,through the prediction experiment of multisite data, it is verified that the RBF neural network model has strong applicability and higher accuracy, and can become a powerful tool for short-term prediction of SST and SSS data.
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