基于自动微分的海冰TOPO融池伴随模式构建及参数优化

Sea Ice Topo Melt Pond Adjoint Model via Automatic Differentiation and its Application in Parameter Estimation

  • 摘要: 融池对海冰有重要的影响。受限于实地观测资料的缺乏,当前海冰模式融池物理参数化方案及其中的参数依旧存在较大的不确定性,是影响海冰模拟准确性的一个因素。本研究基于自动微分工具,第一次得到了CICE6(Community Ice CodE Version 6)海冰模式中TOPO融池方案的伴随模式。首次构建基于伴随的CICE6海冰模式参数敏感性试验,确定了多个备选参数中敏感性最强的融水流失比参数作为待优化参数。利用正向模式、TOPO融池方案伴随模式和L-BFGS优化算法进行了参数调整方案,对一年冰和多年冰区域的融水流失比参数分别进行调整,并将优化后的参数用于模拟试验。结果表明,参数优化后一年冰上融池覆盖率模拟结果的均方根误差由12.97%减小为5.29%,均方根误差减小了59.21%。多年冰上融池覆盖率模拟结果的均方根误差由11.96%减小为7.76%,均方根误差减小了35.11%。基于伴随模式的参数优化方案能够有效地调整模式参数并改善融池模拟结果。为下一步实现全北极区域参数优化和多参数同时调整奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract: Melt pond has important influence on sea ice. Owning to the scarcity of field observation data, there are still large uncertainties in melt pond parameterization schemes of current sea ice models, and this is one of the key factors degrading the accuracy of sea ice simulation. This research presents the melt pond parameter estimation based on the adjoint model technique. For the first time, based on the automatic differentiation tool, the adjoint model of TOPO melt pond scheme in CICE6 sea ice model was attained. Through the sensitivity test based on the adjoint model, the drainage rate parameter with the largest sensitivity was chosen as the candidate parameter. A parameter adjustment scheme was constructed using the forward model, the TOPO adjoint model and the L-BFGS optimization program. The drainage rate parameter in the first-year ice and multi-year ice region were adjusted separately, and the optimized parameters were then used to produce the new simulation results. Our results show that, compared with the simulation with default model parameter, the root mean square error of the melt pond fraction in the first-year ice region is reduced from 12.97% to 5.29%, a reduction of 59.21%. For the multi-year ice region, the root mean square error of the melt pond fraction is reduced from 11.96% to 7.76%, a reduction of 35.11%. The parameter estimation scheme can effectively adjust the model parameters and improve the melt pond fraction simulation, which lays the foundation to achieve the parameter optimization and simultaneous multi-parameter estimation for the whole Arctic.

     

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