海表面温度对西南印度洋夏季准双周振荡的反馈分析

Role of SST Feedback Through Surface Turbulent Fluxes During the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation in the Southwestern Indian Ocean

  • 摘要: 大气准双周振荡(Quasi-biweekly Oscillation, QBWO)是热带和副热带大气的重要季节内变化模态,是提高10~20天延伸期极端天气预报水平的重要依据。目前,关于QBWO的分析主要集中在北半球夏季的西北太平洋和北印度洋海域。相比之下,针对西南印度洋夏季QBWO的研究却相对较少,对于海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)扰动对QBWO的海洋反馈过程的研究尤其匮乏。本文利用1981—2022年大气再分析资料和观测SST资料进行湿静力能(Moist Static Energy, MSE)诊断和敏感性试验,定量评估了SST扰动对QBWO的关键海洋反馈过程。结果表明,西南印度洋夏季QBWO事件按其传播路径可以分为南传和东传两种模态,两种模态的发展演化都与MSE的演化联系密切,即QBWO对流的增强(减弱)伴随着MSE的显著充(放)电过程,这种显著位相对应现象主要是由水平平流项控制。SST扰动对海表面湍流热通量的反馈在QBWO南传模态中较为显著,其引起的海表潜热(感热)通量变化可占MSE时间变化率的12.5%(3.5%),合计占16%。相较于南传模态,东传模态中SST扰动引起的湍流热通量只占其MSE时间变化率的2.6%。

     

    Abstract: The atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is one of the dominant intraseasonal modes in the tropics and subtropics, which is an important basis for improving the extreme weather forecast in the 10-20 days extension period. Compared with comprehensive analyses of the QBWO in the Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer, studies focusing on the austral summer QBWO in the southwestern Indian Ocean are relatively scarce, particularly on the oceanic feedback process of SST perturbations. This study utilizes atmospheric reanalysis data and observed SST data from 1981 to 2022 to quantitatively evaluate the key oceanic feedback process of SST perturbations on QBWO through moist static energy (MSE) diagnosis and sensitivity experiments. The results indicate that summer QBWO events in the southwestern Indian Ocean can be divided into two modes based on their propagation paths: southward and eastward propagation. The development and evolution of both modes are closely related to the evolution of MSE, i.e., the enhancement (weakening) of QBWO convection accompanies a significant recharging (discharging) process of MSE, which is primarily controlled by the horizontal advection term. The feedback of SST perturbations on the turbulent heat fluxes at the sea surface is more significant in the southward propagation mode of QBWO, where the changes in latent (sensible) heat flux induced by SST perturbations can account for 12.5% (3.5%) of the MSE temporal change rate, totaling 16%. In contrast, in the eastward propagation mode, the turbulent heat fluxes caused by SST perturbations can only account for 2.6% of the MSE temporal change rate.

     

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