基于试验数据的一维卷积神经网络在类海啸波的应用研究

The Application of 1D Convolutional Neural Networks in Tsunami-like Waves Based on Experimental Data

  • 摘要: 随着深度学习技术的快速发展,神经网络方法在海啸波预测领域的应用日益广泛。当前的研究主要通过收集现场观测数据或基于数值模拟构建数据库进行预测。然而,数值模拟由于模型本身的简化以及参数设定的不确定性,其预测结果可能存在一定的局限性。虽然观测数据能够提供真实海啸的直接记录,但其获取难度较大,且观测范围有限,难以全面评估神经网络的预测效果和模型的泛化能力。针对上述问题,本文基于不同入射波高和静水深条件下类海啸波在两种地形中传播的物理模型试验,构建了类海啸波时空演变的数据库,并采用时序预测与测点预测两种方法,结合一维卷积神经网络对类海啸波进行了预测研究。首先,在平底水槽条件下开展了4组测点预测试验,结果显示:预测结果的均方根误差的平均值为1.393 mm,平均绝对误差的平均值为 1.150 mm,决定系数的平均值为0.997。随后,在复杂地形水槽条件下设计了8组预测试验,其均方根误差的平均值为2.431 mm,平均绝对误差的平均值为1.354 mm,决定系数的平均值为0.975。此外,在时序预测任务中,神经网络对类海啸波波峰的预测平均误差为0.137%。上述结果表明,本文提出的模型在类海啸波预测中具有较强的泛化能力和较高的预测可靠性,为验证神经网络在海啸波预测中的应用价值提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: With the development of deep learning technologies, neural network methods have been increasingly applied to tsunami wave prediction. Current research predominantly relies on collecting field observation data or using numerical simulations to build databases for prediction. However, due to the simplifications inherent in models and uncertainties in parameter settings, numerical simulation results may have certain limitations. While observational data can provide direct records of real tsunamis, obtaining such data is challenging, with limited observational coverage, making it difficult to effectively evaluate the predictive performance and generalization ability of neural network models. To address these challenges, this study conducted physical model experiments of tsunami-like wave propagation under two terrain conditions with varying incident wave heights and still water depths. A spatiotemporal evolution database of tsunami-like waves was constructed, and two predictive approaches: temporal sequence prediction and observation point prediction, were employed using one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN) to predict tsunami-like waves. This paper initially employed the measurement point prediction method and carried out four sets of prediction experiments in a flat-bottomed water tank. The average value of the root mean square error of the prediction results was 1.393, the average value of the average absolute error was 1.150, and the average value of the coefficient of determination was 0.997. On this basis, this paper further designed eight sets of prediction experiments in a complex terrain water tank. The average value of the root mean square error of the prediction results was 2.431, the average value of the average absolute error was 1.354, and the average value of the coefficient of determination was 0.975. Additionally, in the time series prediction task, the average prediction error of the neural network for the wave crest of tsunami-like waves was 0.137%. The above results indicate that the model has a strong generalization ability and prediction reliability in the prediction of tsunami-like waves, providing a scientific basis for verifying the application value of neural networks in tsunami wave prediction.

     

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