北极多年海冰的反演及其面积变化特征研究

Arctic Multi-year Sea Ice Retrieval and Its Characteristics in Area Change

  • 摘要: 与一年冰相比,多年冰厚度更大、反照率更高,其减少对北极夏季海冰范围的缩小及全球气候变化具有深远影响。本文旨在研究北冰洋多年冰在过去近20年的变化速度及其对气候的影响。为此,通过建立QuikSCAT和ASCAT数据相互匹配的多年冰密集度反演算法,实现对1999/2000年到2017/2018年冬季的多年冰面积变化的时间序列分析。研究发现,北极多年冰的覆盖面积自20世纪以来急剧减少,多年冰面积平均每年减少0.16×106 km2。北极多年冰的年龄逐渐年轻化,在过去20年内以平均每年0.22 a的速率下降(通过95%置信水平)。这种速度反映出北极多年冰正在变薄,在夏季更容易融化。进一步的分析显示,在太平洋扇区和大西洋扇区多年冰的面积减少速率接近(分别为91×103和86×103 km2/a,均通过95%置信水平)。本研究成果为进一步探究北极海冰在全球变暖背景下的快速退缩机制奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract: Compared with first-year ice, multi-year ice has greater thickness and higher albedo, which significantly influences the reduction of Arctic sea ice extent during the summer and has far-reaching implications for global climate change. This study aims to investigate the changes in the extent of Arctic multi-year ice over the past two decades and its impact on climate. Therefore, a multi-year ice concentration retrieval algorithm, based on matching QuikSCAT and ASCAT data, was developed to analyze the time series of multi-year ice area changes from the winter of 1999/2000 to 2017/2018. The study reveals that the extent of Arctic multi-year ice has sharply decreased since the 21th century, with an average annual reduction of 0.16×106 km2. Furthermore, the age of Arctic multi-year ice has been steadily decreasing, with a rate of −0.22/a (significant at 95% confidence level) over the past two decades. This trend reflects the thinning of Arctic multi-year ice, making it more susceptible to melting during the summer. Further analysis shows that the rate of multi-year ice area reduction is nearly the same in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors, at 91×103 km2/a and 86×103 km2/a (significant at 95% confidence level), respectively. The findings of this study provide a foundation for further investigating the rapid retreat mechanisms of Arctic sea ice in the context of global warming.

     

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