盘古气象大模型的台风预测分析及其与控制论的融合初探

Analysis of Typhoon Prediction and Its Preliminary Integration With Cybernetics by Pangu Weather Model

  • 摘要: 本文一方面阐明盘古气象大模型在台风预测方面相比数值预报和传统深度学习的优势,另一方面将盘古气象大模型与控制论结合,以搭建基于自然控制论思想的人工调控台风策略。首先利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的数据和盘古气象大模型的预测数据进行对比,并提出台风预报标准中缺乏的相对误差定义以开展误差分析。其次,在引入人工干预后,将工程控制论中的比例-积分-微分(PID)控制器应用于人工调控台风,并对台风的强度和路径进行模化,以便将其作为控制目标。最后,搭建基于控制论的人工调控台风仿真平台。结果表明:盘古气象大模型在台风预测中具有高精度,经误差分析,其预报结果的误差不高于1%;该模型能够添加对台风的人工干预,并引入工程控制论中的PID控制器;通过对台风进行模化,可以搭建基于工程控制论的人工调控台风仿真平台。

     

    Abstract: The Pangu Weather Model is the first one of the “Top Ten Advances in Chinese Sciences” for the year 2023 released by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). The purpose of this paper: first of all, the typhoon forecast Pangu Weather Model than numerical forecast and the advantages of traditional deep learning, and the typhoon prediction results of big model error analysis, and then based on the typhoon prediction model based on data training, the Pangu Weather Model and cybernetics, to establish artificial control based on the idea of natural cybernetics typhoon strategy. Research methods: first, based on the European center data and Pangu Weather Model forecast data comparison, and put forward the definition of relative error for error analysis, then after adding manual intervention, the proportion of engineering cybernetics-integral-differential (PID) controller applied to artificial control of typhoon, and the strength of typhoon and path to mold as a control target, finally build artificial control based on cybernetics typhoon simulation platform. Conclusion: Firstly, Pangu meteorological model is used for typhoon prediction accuracy, the error of its prediction result is not higher than 1% after error analysis; Secondly, manual intervention for typhoon can be added, and PID controller in engineering cybernetics can be introduced; again, through typhoon modeling, we can build artificial control typhoon simulation platform based on engineering cybernetics.

     

/

返回文章
返回