短期气候预测系统FIO-CPS v2.0对上层海洋热浪月-季节尺度的预测能力评估研究

Assessment of the Upper Marine Heatwave Prediction Performance of the Short-term Climate Prediction System FIO-CPS v2.0

  • 摘要: 近年来极端气候事件中的海洋热浪频发,对生态环境和社会经济造成了巨大影响,因此海洋热浪的预测备受关注。基于海洋热含量等相关指标,本研究评估了自然资源部第一海洋研究所发展的短期气候预测系统FIO-CPS v2.0(First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0)对上层海洋热浪月-季节尺度的预测能力,并利用热收支平衡方程分析该系统的预测能力。结果表明,FIO-CPS v2.0对上层海洋热浪的预测能力表现出区域性与季节性差异。在热带东太平洋、热带西太平洋以及东北太平洋的预测能力相对较好。热带东太平洋的预测能力表现出春季预测障碍现象,热带西太平洋和东北太平洋在秋季的预测能力较好。进一步分析表明,FIO-CPS v2.0对上层海洋热浪预测能力与其驱动因子的预测水平有关。热带东太平洋海洋热浪的预测能力主要依托于ENSO的预测能力;东北太平洋海洋热浪在表层由表面热通量主导,在次表层则由水平平流主导;热带西太平洋海洋热浪则是由垂直平流作用创造的有利条件。此外,FIO-CPS v2.0也能够预测出全球变暖背景下海洋热浪的变化特征。本研究加深了对短期气候预测系统FIO-CPS v2.0预测能力的认知,也为上层海洋热浪短期预测提供了重要参考。

     

    Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have become a frequently occurred extreme climate phenomenon in recent years and exert significant impacts on both ecological environment and social economy, thus attract great attentions from scientists. In this study, we utilize ocean heat content (OHC) to assess the short-term prediction skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0) on the MHWs in upper ocean, and further employ heat budget analysis to investigate intricacies of the MHW prediction. Our findings reveal that the prediction skill of FIO-CPS v2.0 on MHWs exhibits regional and seasonal variations. The prediction skill is better in tropical eastern and western Pacific, and northeastern Pacific. It is worth to note that in tropical eastern Pacific the prediction system encounters spring prediction barrier, but performs well in fall in tropical western Pacific and northeastern Pacific. Further analysis shows that the prediction skill is closely related to the underlying driving mechanism of the MHWs. In tropical eastern Pacific, the prediction skill of the MHWs come mainly from that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In northeastern Pacific, the surface and subsurface prediction skills are attributed to surface heat flux and horizontal advection, respectively, while in tropical western Pacific the prediction skill is provided by vertical advection. Additionally, FIO-CPS v2.0 demonstrates the ability to predict the changing characteristics of the MHWs under global warming. This study not only promotes our understanding on the prediction skill of short-term climate prediction system FIO-CPS v2.0 but also offers a valuable reference for the short-term prediction of the MHWs in upper ocean.

     

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