Abstract: The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), as one of China's most economically dynamic and highly urbanized coastal regions, hosts extensive mangrove ecosystems whose conservation and restoration are critical for regional sustainable development. This study employs a mangrove assessment index system grounded in IPCC climate risk theory, integrating multi-source data (literature, remote sensing imagery, and model simulations) to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of climate risks for GBA mangroves under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) through 2030, 2050, and 2100. Climate resilience enhancement pathways are subsequently proposed. Key findings reveal: ① Compound hazard induced by delayed sea level rise (SLR) and sudden tropical cyclones (TCs) intensify across all RCP scenarios. However, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the northward migration of intense TC tracks reduces annual TC hazard growth rates to 1.2% and 0.6%. Concurrently, SLR emerges as the dominant hazard contributor. ②The exposure level of mangroves ranks as Qi’ao-Dangan Island Provincial Nature Reserve＞Neilingding Island-Futian National Nature Reserve and Zhenhai Bay, While the vulnerability level of mangroves ranks as Zhenhai Bay＞Neilingding Island-Futian National Nature Reserve＞Qi’ao-Dangan Island Provincial Nature Reserve. ③By 2100, 0.27% (RCP2.6), 6.76% (RCP4.5), and 57.42% (RCP8.5) of mangrove forests will have a high comprehensive risk level, and compared to the same period, the comprehensive risk of the Qi’ao Dangan Island Provincial Nature Reserve is the highest. We propose adaptive strategies including biologically engineered shorelines, sediment flux optimization, and native species enrichment to enhance mangrove climate resilience. These measures provide scientific support for climate risk management of coastal ecosystems in the Greater Bay Area and Guangdong Province.