多模型集成的黄海海表温度短期预测研究

Study on Short-Term Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Yellow Sea with Multi-Model Integration

  • 摘要: 海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)作为海洋-大气系统能量交换的关键参数,对灾害预警和气候变化研究至关重要。黄海作为西北太平洋典型的陆架边缘海,时空异质性特征显著。针对单一模型在黄海SST预测中存在的复杂动力机制表征不充分、时空尺度特征捕捉能力不足等问题,本文提出一种基于Stacking的多模型集成预测方法。首先通过指数平滑处理数据噪声,构建多维度特征工程并进行标准化;随后以极限梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost)、轻量级梯度提升机(Light Gradient Boosting Machine, LightGBM)、随机森林回归(Random Forest Regression, RFR)、多层感知机(Multilayer Perceptron, MLP)和支持向量回归(Support Vector Regression, SVR)作为基学习器,并定义RFR作为元学习器,创建Stacking进行训练;最后使用训练好的模型对SST进行预测。结果显示,训练后模型的均方根误差均值为0.173 2 ℃,平均绝对误差的均值为0.130 0 ℃,决定系数的均值为0.999 1,优于单一模型及传统回归方法。将预测结果与最优插值海表温度(Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature, OISST)产品对比,发现两者在时空分布上具有高度一致性。研究证明,该模型能有效融合多模型优势,显著提升SST短期预测精度,为黄海海洋环境监测和气候系统建模提供可靠的技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: As a critical parameter for energy exchange in the ocean-atmosphere system, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is vital for disaster early warning and climate change research. The Yellow Sea, as a typical marginal shelf sea in the Northwest Pacific, exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. To address the limitations of single models in predicting SST in the Yellow Sea, such as insufficient representation of complex dynamic mechanisms and limited ability to capture spatiotemporal scale features, this study proposes a Stacking-based multi-model ensemble prediction method.The workflow involves: 1) denoising data through exponential smoothing, constructing and standardizing multidimensional features; 2) employing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) as base models, with RFR designated as the meta-model for Stacking ensemble training; 3) predicting SST using the trained model.Results show that the optimized model achieves a mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.173 5 ℃, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.130 1 ℃, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.999 1, outperforming single models and traditional regression methods. Comparison with Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) products confirms high spatiotemporal consistency between predicted and observed SST distributions. The study demonstrates that this model can effectively integrate the advantages of multiple models, significantly improve the short-term prediction accuracy of SST, and provide reliable technical support for marine environmental monitoring and climate system modeling in the Yellow Sea.

     

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