基于Transformer模型的区域海浪波数谱预测

Reginal Ocean Wave Wavenumber Spectra Prediction Based on Transformer

  • 摘要: 随着海洋工程和气象预测对准确海浪谱预测需求的不断增加,传统的预测方法在复杂海况下的表现逐渐暴露出局限性。近年来,基于深度学习的模型,特别是Transformer模型,因其在处理长序列数据和捕捉复杂模式方面的优势,受到广泛关注。为提升预测精度和计算效率,本文提出了一种基于Transformer的海浪波数谱预测模型。该模型利用(100°~130°E, 0°~30°N)区域风场的时空序列作为输入,以输出南海北部区域(118°~120°E, 18°~20°N)的海浪波数谱。模型充分利用自注意力机制捕捉长时序依赖和空间特征,构建了一个仅输入风速特征的预测模型。实验结果表明,模型的均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.533、1.238和0.335 m3,这些指标均低于CNN和CNN+LSTM的预测结果。同时本模型预测的海浪波数谱积分后得到的有效波高和跨零周期与MASNUM-WAM的模拟结果也较为相似。该研究为基于数据驱动方法进行海洋过程建模提供了新思路,在海上作业安全、海洋灾害预警等方面具有重要应用价值。

     

    Abstract: With the increasing demand for precise ocean wave spectra predictions in marine engineering and meteorological forecasting, the limitations of traditional methods under complex sea conditions have become progressively apparent. In recent years, deep learning-based models,particularly those utilizing the Transformer architecture, have attracted extensive attention due to their advantages in processing long sequential data and capturing complex patterns. This study proposed a Transformer-based method for predicting the wavenumber spectra, with the aim of enhancing both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. The model employed spatiotemporal wind field sequences ( 100°-130°E, 0°-30°N) as input and outputs the wavenumber spectra for the northern South China Sea region (118°-120°E, 18°-20°N). By fully leveraging the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term temporal dependencies and spatial features, the proposed model is designed to predict using only wind speed features. Experimental results indicate that the mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) achieved by the proposed model are 1.533 m3, 1.238 m3, and 0.335 m3, respectively: each lower than those obtained by CNN and CNN+LSTM models. Additionally, the significant wave height and zero-crossing period derived from the integrated predicted wave spectrum are found to be in close agreement with the simulation results of MASNUM-WAM. This study offers a novel approach to data-driven marine process modeling and holds significant potential for enhancing offshore operation safety and marine disaster early warning systems.

     

/

返回文章
返回