基于能量平衡理论的海洋混合层深度变化对全球增暖的响应研究

Response of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth to Global Warming Based on Energy Balance Theory

  • 摘要: 全球增暖背景下,海洋混合层深度(Mixed Layer Depth, MLD)发生显著变化,进而影响天气、气候及海洋生态系统。然而,受研究区域及所选用的混合层深度定义差异的影响,现有研究对MLD响应增暖的空间格局存在不一致性,全球尺度的响应格局尚未明确。本文基于WOA23数据集和国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6)中最高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下的多模式集合平均结果,采用简化的能量平衡理论模型(Energy Balance Model, EBM),从混合层深度对表面气温季节性变幅的调控作用出发,计算了全球海洋有效热容量(Effective Heat Capacity, EHC)的空间分布,并据此推演混合层深度的空间变化,完善了混合层深度的定义方法。结果表明,在增暖背景下,MLD在中低纬度海域普遍变浅,而在高纬度海域则显著加深。不同纬度带中温度与盐度对密度变化的主导作用差异,是MLD空间响应异质性及现有定义方法存在局限性的主要原因。本文的研究工作深化了对于全球增暖情况下海洋响应过程的认识,有助于提升对未来天气、气候演变及海洋生态系统变化中海洋反馈作用的理解与预测能力。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of global warming, the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) undergoes significant changes, which in turn influence weather, climate, and marine ecosystems. However, due to differences in study regions and the definitions of MLD adopted, existing studies show considerable inconsistencies in the spatial patterns of MLD responses to warming, and a coherent global-scale pattern remains unclear. Based on WOA23 dataset and the multi-model ensemble mean under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study employs a simplified energy balance model (EBM) to quantify the spatial distribution of effective heat capacity (EHC) in the global ocean, starting from the regulatory role of MLD in modulating the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature. The inferred changes in EHC are then used to derive the spatial variations in MLD, thereby refining the method for defining MLD. Results indicate that, under warming, MLD generally shoals in low- and mid-latitude regions while deepening significantly in high-latitude areas. The latitudinal differences in the dominant contributions of temperature and salinity to seawater density are identified as the primary drivers of the heterogeneous spatial responses of MLD and the limitations of existing MLD definitions. This study advances the understanding of oceanic responses to global warming and contributes to improving our ability to predict and assess oceanic feedbacks in future weather, climate evolution, and marine ecosystem changes.

     

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