2023年秋季孟加拉湾北部强降水机制研究

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Strong Precipitation in the Northern Bay of Bengal in Fall 2023

  • 摘要: 热带太平洋El Niño事件通常通过跨海盆海气相互作用抑制孟加拉湾北部秋季降水,而2023年秋季超强El Niño期间,该区域却出现了降水异常增多现象,并引发了严重的局部洪涝灾害。本文利用CPC降水数据和ERA5再分析数据,通过合成分析发现,该异常降水事件主要源于孟加拉湾西风背景场与热带气旋的协同作用,而西风异常与热带气旋活动异常源自西风异常-海表面温度梯度正反馈机制导致的孟加拉湾海温异常。2023年9月,孟加拉湾北部低空大气环流场出现了显著的西风,带动表层暖水向东岸堆积,海表面温度(SST)形成向西的海温梯度,通过影响海表气压梯度进而影响风场,使得异常西风和海温异常分布得以维持。同时热带气旋活动增强。热带气旋的东南侧环流与西风异常叠加,形成了中心风速超20 m·s−1的低空急流,其从洋面输送的暖湿水汽与热带气旋降水协同作用,最终导致孟加拉湾北部9月降水异常激增。同时,10—11月孟加拉湾的热带风暴和台风在持续时间与强度上为近20年来最强,进而造成了降水的显著增多。这些结果证明了调控孟加拉湾季风区降水变化的多尺度海气相互作用的复杂性,可为预测热带气候变化下的局地气象灾害提供新视角。

     

    Abstract: The El Niño events in the tropical Pacific usually suppress precipitation in fall over the northern Bay of Bengal through cross-basin air-sea interactions. However, a significant enhanced precipitation was observed during the fall 2023 super El Niño and triggered severe localized flooding. This study reveals that the anomalous precipitation event mainly originated from the synergistic effect of westerly wind activity and tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The anomalous westerly wind and anomalous tropical cyclone activity originated from the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Bay of Bengal mainly due to westerly anomalies-SST gradient positive feedback mechanism. In September 2023, the northern Bay of Bengal experienced significant westerly winds in the low-altitude atmospheric circulation field, which drove the accumulation of surface warm water towards the east coast, and the SST formed a westward temperature gradient, which affected the wind field by influencing the sea surface pressure gradient, allowing the anomalous westerly winds and anomalous SST distribution to be maintained. At the same time, tropical cyclone activity is obviously enhanced. The superposition of the southeasterly circulation of the tropical cyclone and the anomalous westerly winds formed a low-level rapid with a central wind speed of more than 20 m·s−1, whose warm moisture transported from the ocean surface synergistically interacted with the tropical cyclone precipitation, ultimately leading to anomalous precipitation surge in the northern Bay of Bengal in September. Meanwhile, the tropical storms and typhoons in the Bay of Bengal in October-November were the strongest in the last 20 years in terms of duration and intensity, which in turn caused a significant increase in precipitation. These results demonstrate the complexity of the multi-scale air-sea interactions that regulate precipitation changes in the monsoon region of the Bay of Bengal, and provide a new perspective for predicting localized meteorological hazards under tropical climate change.

     

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