海洋热浪研究进展与技术挑战

Research Progress and Technical Challenges of Marine Heatwaves

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖导致海洋热含量持续上升的背景下,海洋热浪(Marine Heatwaves, MHWs)作为一种极端海洋高温事件,其发生频率、强度和持续时间均呈现显著增加态势,已成为威胁全球海洋生态系统稳定与健康的严峻挑战。本文系统梳理了近年来国内外在海洋热浪研究方面的重要成果,全面阐述了MHWs定义与分类体系的演变、驱动机制、归因分析和生态影响。通过回顾并分析MHWs评估体系的演变可知,其已突破早期单一的SST阈值判断,发展为涵盖强度分级、时空聚类及综合指数的多维度评价体系,显著提升了对大范围极端事件的捕捉能力。在此基础上,本文进一步剖析MHWs的物理驱动机制,阐明大气强迫与海洋内部动力过程在不同海域的差异化贡献及其受大尺度气候模态的调制作用。归因分析证实,人为温室气体排放引起的海温升高是近期极端MHWs频发的主导因素,在未来升温情景下,其发生概率将呈非线性剧增趋势。文章还总结了MHWs对海洋生态系统的广泛冲击,涵盖珊瑚白化、海草床退化及物种遗传多样性丧失等关键生态问题,并探讨了其与台风、低氧酸化等事件的复合效应。针对当前研究多局限于海洋表层的现状,本文展望了MHWs研究从二维表层向三维次表层热浪拓展的前沿方向,指出深海立体观测与高分辨率模拟是解析次表层热浪形成演化机理、提升极端事件预测预警能力的核心关键支撑。

     

    Abstract: With rising ocean heat content driven by global warming, marine heatwaves (MHWs) as extreme ocean temperature anomalies have exhibited significant increases in frequency, intensity, and duration, posing severe threats to global marine ecosystem stability and health. This paper comprehensively reviews recent domestic and international research to systematically synthesize the evolution of MHWs definitions and classification, driving mechanisms, attribution, and impacts. Through reviewing the evolution of MHWs assessment frameworks, we show that current approaches have advanced beyond early single-SST-threshold criteria to develop multidimensional evaluation systems encompassing intensity classification, spatiotemporal clustering, and comprehensive indices, markedly improving the capability to capture large-scale extreme events. Further analysis of the physical driving mechanisms reveals the regionally varying contributions of atmospheric forcing and internal ocean dynamics, as well as their modulation by large-scale climate modes. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have been confirmed through attribution as the dominant driver of recent extreme MHWs occurrences, with their probability of occurrence increasing nonlinearly under future warming scenarios. The review also summarizes the widespread ecological impacts of MHWs, including coral bleaching, seagrass meadow degradation, and loss of genetic diversity, alongside the compound effects of MHWs combined with typhoons, hypoxia, and ocean acidification. Finally, addressing the limitation that current research predominantly focuses on the sea surface, we provide a perspective on emerging research frontiers extending from two-dimensional surface to three-dimensional subsurface heatwaves, highlighting integrated deep-ocean observational networks and high-resolution modeling as critical foundations for understanding subsurface heatwave evolution mechanisms and enhancing prediction capabilities.

     

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