谢恩灵, 郑清丹, 陈长霖, 等, xxxx. 海平面长期变化对东北印度洋半日潮波影响的数值模拟[J]. 海洋科学进展, x(x): xx-xx. doi: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20231111001.
引用本文: 谢恩灵, 郑清丹, 陈长霖, 等, xxxx. 海平面长期变化对东北印度洋半日潮波影响的数值模拟[J]. 海洋科学进展, x(x): xx-xx. doi: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20231111001.
XIE E L, ZHENG Q D, CHEN C L, et al, xxxx. Numerical simulation of the influence of the long-term sea level variation on semi-diurnal tidal waves in the Northeast Indian Ocean[J]. Advances in Marine Science, x(x): xx-xx. DOI: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20231111001
Citation: XIE E L, ZHENG Q D, CHEN C L, et al, xxxx. Numerical simulation of the influence of the long-term sea level variation on semi-diurnal tidal waves in the Northeast Indian Ocean[J]. Advances in Marine Science, x(x): xx-xx. DOI: 10.12362/j.issn.1671-6647.20231111001

海平面长期变化对东北印度洋半日潮波影响的数值模拟

Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Long-term Sea Level Change on Semi-diurnal Tidal Waves in the Northeast Indian Ocean

  • 摘要: 本文根据政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告提供的海平面变化相关数据,计算得到2100年相较于2020年东北印度洋在低排放(SSP1-2.6)和高排放(SSP5-8.5)情景下的海平面变化值。基于FVCOM(Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model)海洋数值模式,建立起同时满足东北印度洋在近岸和大洋中模拟精度和计算效率要求的潮波模型,对当前和未来海平面变化之后的东北印度洋潮波进行模拟,分析海平面长期变化对东北印度洋及其内部的孟加拉湾顶部、马达班湾和马六甲海峡北部等重要海区的M2、S2半日分潮潮波带来的影响。研究结果表明,同一分潮受不同排放情景下海平面变化幅度不同的影响,振幅和迟角变化幅度不同,在高排放情景下M2和S2分潮振幅变化最大值分别可达52.26 cm和28.59 cm;低排放情景下M2和S2分潮振幅变化最大值分别为39.07 cm和23.34 cm;振幅和迟角变化均呈现高排放情景下的变化幅度大于低排放情景的特征。不同分潮在同一排放情景下的振幅和迟角变化具有相似的空间分布特征,M2、S2两分潮振幅在6°N以北的大部分海区减小,仅在小部分近岸河口等浅水海区存在明显增大趋势,而在6°N以南的海域呈现增大-减小交错分布的空间形态;深水海区振幅受海平面变化的影响远小于浅水海区,变化幅度明显小于近岸浅水海区;M2分潮振幅变化幅度大于S2分潮;在分潮迟角变化上,2个主要半日分潮迟角变化的空间分布基本一致,在深水大洋区变化幅度基本不超过1°,而在孟加拉湾顶部等近岸浅水海区变化较为明显,迟角在孟加拉湾顶部和马六甲海峡北部呈减小趋势,在马达班湾呈增大趋势。

     

    Abstract: The sea level change in the Northeast Indian Ocean in low emission (SSP1-2.6) scenarios and high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios in 2100 to 2020 is analyzed with the data provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Based on the Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model (FVCOM), a tidal wave model is established and meets the requirements of both nearshore and oceanic simulation accuracy and computational efficiency for the Northeast Indian Ocean. Simulations of tidal waves under the influence of current and future sea level changes, including the influences on semi-diurnal tides M2 and S2 in the Northeast Indian Ocean and its internal areas such as the top of the Bay of Bengal, the Gulf of Martaban and the northern part of the Strait of Malacca were studied. It shows that both the amplitude and Greenwich phase-lag changes are greater in the high emission scenario than in the low emission scenario. In the high emission scenario, the maximum tidal amplitude changes of M2 and S2 are 52.26 cm and 28.59 cm, respectively, while in the low emission scenario, those of M2 and S2 are 39.07 cm and 23.34 cm, respectively. In the same emission scenario, the amplitude changes have similar spatial distribution characteristics. The amplitude changes decrease in most areas to the north of 6°N except a few shallow nearshore estuaries. However, in the area to the south of 6°N, the increase and decrease areas exhibit a staggered distribution pattern. The amplitude in deep water areas is less affected by sea level changes than shallow water areas. The spatial distribution of the Greenwich phase-lag changes of M2 and S2 is basically the same, and in the deep water region the amplitude change is usually less than 1°. However, the phase-lag changes are more obvious in shallow coastal areas such as the top of the Bay of Bengal. The phase-lag shows a decreasing trend in the top of the Bay of Bengal and the northern part of the Strait of Malacca, and an increasing trend in the Gulf of Martaban.

     

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