盘古气象大模型的台风预测分析及其与控制论的融合初探

Analysis of Typhoon Prediction and Its Preliminary Integration With Cybernetics by Pangu-Weather

  • 摘要: 本文一方面阐明盘古气象大模型在台风预测方面相比数值预报和传统深度学习的优势,另一方面将盘古气象大模型与控制论结合,以搭建基于自然控制论思想的人工调控台风策略。首先利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的数据和盘古气象大模型的预测数据进行对比,并提出台风预报标准中缺乏的相对误差定义以开展误差分析。其次,在引入人工干预后,将工程控制论中的比例-积分-微分(PID)控制器应用于人工调控台风,并对台风的强度和路径进行模化,以便将其作为控制目标。最后,搭建基于控制论的人工调控台风仿真平台。结果表明:盘古气象大模型在台风预测中具有高精度,经误差分析,其预报结果的误差不高于1%;该模型能够添加对台风的人工干预,并引入工程控制论中的PID控制器;通过对台风进行模化,可以搭建基于工程控制论的人工调控台风仿真平台。

     

    Abstract: Pangu-Weather is honored as one of the “Top Ten Advances in Chinese Sciences” for the year 2023 by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). This paper demonstrates that the typhoon forecast by Pangu-Weather is better than numerical forecast and traditional deep learning model. Based on the typhoon forecast model with data training and Pangu-Weather with cybernetics, artificial control is established with the idea of natural cybernetics typhoon strategy. By comparing the ECMWF data with Pangu-Weather forecast, the relative error is defined for error analysis and manual intervention is further adopted. Then the proportion of engineering cybernetics-integral-differential (PID) controller is applied to the artificial control of typhoon, including and the strength and path of typhoon that is modeled as a control target, to build artificial control basing cybernetics typhoon simulation platform. Our study shows that as Pangu-Weather is used for typhoon prediction, the error of prediction result is less than 1% , and the manual intervention for typhoon can be added and PID controller in engineering cybernetics can be introduced. Through typhoon modeling, we can build artificial control for typhoon simulation platform using engineering cybernetics.

     

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